{ "_meta": { "what": "Historical attention proxy 1979-2016 (M1; registration frozen before first computation, analysis/back_extension_memo.md). A DIFFERENT construct from the live instrument -- monthly event-mention shares by frozen actor-pair filters -- never spliced into or drawn with the 2017+ series. Four channels; shipping has no defensible event analog and is excluded. Channels whose 2017-2019 overlap correlation is under 0.4 do not publish a historical series; that negative is the finding.", "generated": "2026-08-07T16:02:50Z", "license": "CC BY 4.0", "citation": "Krishna, Ishan (2026). India Geopolitical Risk Monitor. https://igrm.in/", "codebook": "https://igrm.in/codebook.html", "source": "https://igrm.in/data/back_extension.json" }, "anchor_grades": [ { "anchor": "Operation Blue Star + aftermath", "month": "1984-06", "channel": "pakistan_west", "pctl_trailing_10y": 52.3, "top_decile": false }, { "anchor": "Brasstacks crisis", "month": "1987-01", "channel": "pakistan_west", "pctl_trailing_10y": 99.0, "top_decile": true }, { "anchor": "Pokhran-II tests + sanctions", "month": "1998-05", "channel": "pakistan_west", "pctl_trailing_10y": 96.6, "top_decile": true }, { "anchor": "Pokhran-II sanctions (US leg)", "month": "1998-05", "channel": "us_trade", "pctl_trailing_10y": 99.2, "top_decile": true }, { "anchor": "Kargil war", "month": "1999-06", "channel": "pakistan_west", "pctl_trailing_10y": 100.0, "top_decile": true }, { "anchor": "Parliament attack + Op. Parakram", "month": "2001-12", "channel": "pakistan_west", "pctl_trailing_10y": 96.6, "top_decile": true }, { "anchor": "Mumbai 26/11", "month": "2008-11", "channel": "pakistan_west", "pctl_trailing_10y": 89.1, "top_decile": false }, { "anchor": "Sumdorong Chu standoff", "month": "1986-10", "channel": "china_east", "pctl_trailing_10y": 54.8, "top_decile": false }, { "anchor": "Doklam (overlap check vs live instrument)", "month": "2017-06", "channel": "china_east", "pctl_trailing_10y": 92.9, "top_decile": true } ], "overlap_audit": { "pakistan_west": { "months": 36, "r": 0.893, "verdict": "tracks" }, "china_east": { "months": 36, "r": 0.848, "verdict": "tracks" }, "us_trade": { "months": 36, "r": 0.216, "verdict": "DOES NOT PUBLISH (negative finding)" }, "gulf_energy": { "months": 36, "r": 0.153, "verdict": "DOES NOT PUBLISH (negative finding)" } }, "series": { "pakistan_west": { "months": [ "1979-01", "1979-02", "1979-03", "1979-04", "1979-05", "1979-06", "1979-07", "1979-08", 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