{
 "_meta": {
  "license": "CC BY 4.0",
  "citation": "Krishna, Ishan (2026). India Geopolitical Risk Monitor. https://igrm.in/",
  "codebook": "https://igrm.in/codebook.html",
  "source": "https://igrm.in/data/detection_baselines.json",
  "what": "Base rates for the registered episode-detection hit rate and the placebo overlap. The registered statistics are unchanged; this publishes the denominators that make them interpretable, because a hit rate quoted without its chance rate is a number wearing a costume.",
  "prompted_by": "a simulated hostile referee (analysis/referee_report_2026-08-07.md, findings 3-4), whose recomputations of the published statistics all reproduced and whose criticism was aimed at what was NOT published beside them",
  "registered_criterion": "a detected same-channel episode day within +/-3 days of the event (the lenient reading; the strict start-based reading is published here alongside)",
  "how_to_read": "The apparatus earns exactly the gap between the registered hits and the chance/naive rows. A registered rate far above chance but close to the naive any-channel detector means the CHANNEL ATTRIBUTION carries the value, not the detection itself.",
  "generated": "2026-09-18T00:52:17Z"
 },
 "hit_rate_context": {
  "n_events": 29,
  "registered_criterion_hits": 24,
  "strict_start_hits": 19,
  "criterion_sensitive_events": [
   "Balakot airstrike and aerial engagement",
   "India-Pakistan military exchange (to ceasefire of May 10)",
   "US doubles tariffs on India to 50% over Russian-oil purchases",
   "US strike kills Qasem Soleimani in Baghdad",
   "US Section 232 steel and aluminium tariffs signed (global trade-war onset; India affected)"
  ],
  "naive_any_channel_hits": 26,
  "chance_expected_hits": 6.8,
  "n_episodes": 532
 },
 "placebo_context": {
  "study_start": "2022-05-15",
  "study_end": "2026-06-20",
  "n_study_days": 1498,
  "n_placebo_episodes": 115,
  "observed_overlaps": 52,
  "observed_overlap_fraction": 0.4522,
  "geopolitical_episode_day_fraction": 0.2784,
  "random_placement_expected_overlaps": 40.9,
  "random_placement_overlap_fraction": 0.3558,
  "excess_over_random_fraction": 0.0964,
  "method": "For each observed placebo episode, preserve its inclusive duration; enumerate every possible interval start inside the placebo study window; measure overlap with any published geopolitical episode day; average the resulting episode-specific probabilities.",
  "registered_null": false
 },
 "composite7_battery": {
  "rule": "the registered T2 convention applied descriptively: composite7 above its trailing 90th percentile (730-day window, >= 180 trailing observations). T2's alert-time band-survival clause is omitted because published sampling bands do not span the full history.",
  "n_days_evaluable": 3159,
  "first_evaluable_day": "2017-12-31",
  "n_days_elevated": 450,
  "elevated_day_fraction": 0.1425,
  "n_elevated_runs": 59,
  "n_events": 29,
  "n_events_evaluable": 28,
  "hits": 8,
  "chance_expected_hits": 6.4,
  "events_missed": [
   "Accidental BrahMos missile launch into Pakistan (disclosed by Pakistan March 10; an honest hard case for event-day timing)",
   "Balakot airstrike and aerial engagement",
   "Ever Given grounds in the Suez Canal",
   "First US-UK strikes on Houthi targets; peak Red Sea coverage",
   "Galaxy Leader seizure; start of Houthi Red Sea shipping attacks",
   "Galwan Valley clash",
   "Hamas attack on Israel",
   "India-Pakistan LoC ceasefire reaffirmation",
   "Iran ballistic-missile strike on Israel",
   "Iran direct drone/missile strike on Israel",
   "Israel strikes Iran; 12-day war, Hormuz closure fears",
   "OPEC+ announces 2 million bpd production cut",
   "OPEC+ collapse; oil price war begins",
   "Pulwama attack",
   "Russia invades Ukraine (oil-supply shock; tests the energy-security half of the channel)",
   "Tawang sector clash, Arunachal Pradesh",
   "US Section 232 steel and aluminium tariffs signed (global trade-war onset; India affected)",
   "US announces termination of India's GSP trade preference status",
   "US reciprocal-tariff announcement",
   "United States withdraws from the JCPOA (Iran nuclear deal)"
  ]
 }
}