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    "citation": "Krishna, Ishan (2026). India Geopolitical Risk Monitor, Historical Intelligence v1. https://igrm.in/history-lab.html",
    "codebook": "https://igrm.in/codebook.html#historical-intelligence",
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    "license": "CC BY 4.0",
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              "features_used": [
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          ],
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        },
        "2019-05": {
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          ],
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        "2019-06": {
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              "distance": 0.122397,
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            {
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          ],
          "available": true,
          "features_present": [
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            "volatility_12m_raw_share"
          ],
          "unavailable_reason": null
        },
        "2019-07": {
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            {
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              "month": "1980-12",
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            {
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              "distance": 0.153918,
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          ],
          "available": true,
          "features_present": [
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        },
        "2019-08": {
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              "month": "1980-03",
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          ],
          "available": true,
          "features_present": [
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              "month": "1982-11",
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              "month": "1980-11",
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              "month": "1980-12",
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            {
              "distance": 0.214088,
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              "features_used": [
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                "volatility_12m_raw_share"
              ],
              "month": "2003-08",
              "n_features_used": 3
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          ],
          "available": true,
          "features_present": [
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            "volatility_12m_raw_share"
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          "unavailable_reason": null
        },
        "2019-10": {
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              "month": "1982-11",
              "n_features_used": 2
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            {
              "distance": 0.102072,
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              "month": "1982-12",
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            {
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              "month": "1993-05",
              "n_features_used": 3
            },
            {
              "distance": 0.168227,
              "features_excluded_as_null": [
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              "month": "1980-11",
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            {
              "distance": 0.173678,
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              "month": "1980-12",
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          ],
          "available": true,
          "features_present": [
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            "volatility_12m_raw_share"
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          "unavailable_reason": null
        },
        "2019-11": {
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              "month": "1980-06",
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            {
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              "month": "1993-09",
              "n_features_used": 3
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            {
              "distance": 0.09112,
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                "level_pctl_10y",
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              "month": "1991-12",
              "n_features_used": 3
            },
            {
              "distance": 0.110297,
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              "month": "1980-10",
              "n_features_used": 2
            },
            {
              "distance": 0.11404,
              "features_excluded_as_null": [],
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                "level_pctl_10y",
                "change_12m_raw_share",
                "volatility_12m_raw_share"
              ],
              "month": "2013-07",
              "n_features_used": 3
            }
          ],
          "available": true,
          "features_present": [
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            "volatility_12m_raw_share"
          ],
          "unavailable_reason": null
        },
        "2019-12": {
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            {
              "distance": 0.036595,
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              "month": "1980-04",
              "n_features_used": 2
            },
            {
              "distance": 0.060843,
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              "features_used": [
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                "volatility_12m_raw_share"
              ],
              "month": "1980-06",
              "n_features_used": 2
            },
            {
              "distance": 0.102596,
              "features_excluded_as_null": [],
              "features_used": [
                "level_pctl_10y",
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              ],
              "month": "1985-02",
              "n_features_used": 3
            },
            {
              "distance": 0.145839,
              "features_excluded_as_null": [
                "level_pctl_10y"
              ],
              "features_used": [
                "change_12m_raw_share",
                "volatility_12m_raw_share"
              ],
              "month": "1980-10",
              "n_features_used": 2
            },
            {
              "distance": 0.156505,
              "features_excluded_as_null": [
                "level_pctl_10y"
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              "features_used": [
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              ],
              "month": "1980-12",
              "n_features_used": 2
            }
          ],
          "available": true,
          "features_present": [
            "level_pctl_10y",
            "change_12m_raw_share",
            "volatility_12m_raw_share"
          ],
          "unavailable_reason": null
        }
      }
    },
    "determinism": "Ties are broken by ascending month string, so the same query returns the same ordered result on every run and platform.",
    "distance": "euclidean_over_available_standardised_features",
    "exclusion_reason": "Months within exclusion_window_months of the query are excluded: adjacent months are trivially similar and would crowd out every informative analog.",
    "exclusion_window_months": 6,
    "features": [
      {
        "id": "level_pctl_10y",
        "source": "pctl_10y",
        "transform": "identity"
      },
      {
        "id": "change_12m_raw_share",
        "source": "raw_share",
        "transform": "difference_vs_12_months_earlier"
      },
      {
        "id": "volatility_12m_raw_share",
        "source": "raw_share",
        "transform": "trailing_12_month_sample_stddev"
      }
    ],
    "missingness_rule": "A feature that is null for either the query or the candidate is EXCLUDED from that pair's distance, the excluded feature is named in the result, and n_features_used is reported. A pair sharing fewer than min_features_for_match usable features is refused, not distance-imputed. No null is ever replaced by zero or by a mean.",
    "policy": "Given a month present in the archive, return the nearest other months in the same channel by standardised distance over registered features. Retrieval is a similarity lookup over one measured series. It carries no claim that similar months share causes, and no claim about what follows them.",
    "reason_template": "Nearest standardised distance over n_features_used of the registered features. Features listed in features_excluded_as_null were null for that pair and were excluded from the distance, never imputed and never zeroed.",
    "standardisation": {
      "china_east": {
        "change_12m_raw_share": {
          "mean": -4.8e-05,
          "n_observed": 480,
          "stddev": 0.016771
        },
        "level_pctl_10y": {
          "mean": 56.607901,
          "n_observed": 405,
          "stddev": 24.41652
        },
        "volatility_12m_raw_share": {
          "mean": 0.008828,
          "n_observed": 481,
          "stddev": 0.007408
        }
      },
      "pakistan_west": {
        "change_12m_raw_share": {
          "mean": 0.000459,
          "n_observed": 480,
          "stddev": 0.03753
        },
        "level_pctl_10y": {
          "mean": 53.05679,
          "n_observed": 405,
          "stddev": 28.953609
        },
        "volatility_12m_raw_share": {
          "mean": 0.020291,
          "n_observed": 481,
          "stddev": 0.014499
        }
      }
    }
  },
  "channel_eligibility": {
    "eligible": [
      "pakistan_west",
      "china_east"
    ],
    "policy": "A channel is published only where the registered 2017-2019 overlap audit in the source payload returned a tracking verdict. The audit is the gate; a low correlation is a published negative finding, not a channel to repair.",
    "refused": {
      "gulf_energy": "overlap r=0.153 over 36 months; source payload verdict DOES NOT PUBLISH (negative finding)",
      "shipping": "excluded at registration: no defensible historical event analog for the channel's construct",
      "us_trade": "overlap r=0.216 over 36 months; source payload verdict DOES NOT PUBLISH (negative finding)"
    }
  },
  "event_archetypes": {
    "machine_generated_permitted": false,
    "policy": "An archetype is attached to a month only where a HUMAN-AUTHORED registered anchor exists in the source payload's anchor_grades. Nothing is machine-labelled. A month with no registered anchor reports archetype_available=false with reason 'no_registered_human_authored_archetype', and is never given an inferred one.",
    "rows": [
      {
        "archetype": "Operation Blue Star + aftermath",
        "authorship": "human_authored_at_registration",
        "available": true,
        "channel": "pakistan_west",
        "month": "1984-06",
        "pctl_trailing_10y": 52.3,
        "top_decile": false,
        "unavailable_reason": null
      },
      {
        "archetype": "Brasstacks crisis",
        "authorship": "human_authored_at_registration",
        "available": true,
        "channel": "pakistan_west",
        "month": "1987-01",
        "pctl_trailing_10y": 99.0,
        "top_decile": true,
        "unavailable_reason": null
      },
      {
        "archetype": "Pokhran-II tests + sanctions",
        "authorship": "human_authored_at_registration",
        "available": true,
        "channel": "pakistan_west",
        "month": "1998-05",
        "pctl_trailing_10y": 96.6,
        "top_decile": true,
        "unavailable_reason": null
      },
      {
        "archetype": "Pokhran-II sanctions (US leg)",
        "authorship": "human_authored_at_registration",
        "available": false,
        "channel": "us_trade",
        "month": "1998-05",
        "pctl_trailing_10y": 99.2,
        "top_decile": true,
        "unavailable_reason": "overlap r=0.216 over 36 months; source payload verdict DOES NOT PUBLISH (negative finding)"
      },
      {
        "archetype": "Kargil war",
        "authorship": "human_authored_at_registration",
        "available": true,
        "channel": "pakistan_west",
        "month": "1999-06",
        "pctl_trailing_10y": 100.0,
        "top_decile": true,
        "unavailable_reason": null
      },
      {
        "archetype": "Parliament attack + Op. Parakram",
        "authorship": "human_authored_at_registration",
        "available": true,
        "channel": "pakistan_west",
        "month": "2001-12",
        "pctl_trailing_10y": 96.6,
        "top_decile": true,
        "unavailable_reason": null
      },
      {
        "archetype": "Mumbai 26/11",
        "authorship": "human_authored_at_registration",
        "available": true,
        "channel": "pakistan_west",
        "month": "2008-11",
        "pctl_trailing_10y": 89.1,
        "top_decile": false,
        "unavailable_reason": null
      },
      {
        "archetype": "Sumdorong Chu standoff",
        "authorship": "human_authored_at_registration",
        "available": true,
        "channel": "china_east",
        "month": "1986-10",
        "pctl_trailing_10y": 54.8,
        "top_decile": false,
        "unavailable_reason": null
      },
      {
        "archetype": "Doklam (overlap check vs live instrument)",
        "authorship": "human_authored_at_registration",
        "available": true,
        "channel": "china_east",
        "month": "2017-06",
        "pctl_trailing_10y": 92.9,
        "top_decile": true,
        "unavailable_reason": null
      }
    ]
  },
  "limitations": [
    "This measures press attention in a monthly event-mention share, not conflict, risk, escalation or outcome.",
    "Two of five channels publish. The other three are refused on registered grounds and the refusal is part of the output.",
    "A candidate break is a property of the series under a declared descriptive scan; a different algorithm would place breaks differently, which is why the sensitivity sweep is published beside it.",
    "Analog distance is a similarity over three registered features of one series. It is not a claim of comparable circumstances and it is not evidence about what followed.",
    "The trailing-percentile feature is undefined for the first 120 months, so early-archive analogs rest on fewer features, and each result reports how many it used."
  ],
  "regime_baselines": {
    "denominator_rule": "Every statistic reports the denominator it was computed over. n_months_in_period is the calendar count; n_observed is the count of non-null observations; coverage_fraction is n_observed / n_months_in_period. A statistic over fewer than min_observed_months is refused and reported as unavailable with its reason.",
    "non_comparability": [
      "Periods are not comparable to the live 2017+ instrument, which measures a different construct.",
      "pctl_10y is a trailing-ten-year percentile and is undefined for the archive's first 120 months; that missingness is reported per period rather than filled.",
      "Cross-channel comparison of raw_share is not meaningful: each channel's share is relative to its own filter, not a shared denominator."
    ],
    "registered_periods": [
      {
        "end": "1989-12",
        "id": "p1979_1989",
        "label": "1979-1989",
        "start": "1979-01"
      },
      {
        "end": "1999-12",
        "id": "p1990_1999",
        "label": "1990-1999",
        "start": "1990-01"
      },
      {
        "end": "2009-12",
        "id": "p2000_2009",
        "label": "2000-2009",
        "start": "2000-01"
      },
      {
        "end": "2019-12",
        "id": "p2010_2019",
        "label": "2010-2019",
        "start": "2010-01"
      }
    ],
    "rows": [
      {
        "available": true,
        "channel": "pakistan_west",
        "coverage_fraction": 0.553,
        "max": 100.0,
        "mean": 62.727397,
        "median": 64.5,
        "min": 9.5,
        "n_months_in_period": 132,
        "n_observed": 73,
        "p90": 96.52,
        "period_end": "1989-12",
        "period_id": "p1979_1989",
        "period_label": "1979-1989",
        "period_start": "1979-01",
        "series": "pctl_10y",
        "unavailable_reason": null
      },
      {
        "available": true,
        "channel": "pakistan_west",
        "coverage_fraction": 1.0,
        "max": 100.0,
        "mean": 57.546667,
        "median": 57.1,
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        "n_months_in_period": 120,
        "n_observed": 120,
        "p90": 93.47,
        "period_end": "1999-12",
        "period_id": "p1990_1999",
        "period_label": "1990-1999",
        "period_start": "1990-01",
        "series": "pctl_10y",
        "unavailable_reason": null
      },
      {
        "available": true,
        "channel": "pakistan_west",
        "coverage_fraction": 1.0,
        "max": 100.0,
        "mean": 55.953333,
        "median": 59.65,
        "min": 0.8,
        "n_months_in_period": 120,
        "n_observed": 120,
        "p90": 92.49,
        "period_end": "2009-12",
        "period_id": "p2000_2009",
        "period_label": "2000-2009",
        "period_start": "2000-01",
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        "unavailable_reason": null
      },
      {
        "available": true,
        "channel": "pakistan_west",
        "coverage_fraction": 0.7667,
        "max": 100.0,
        "mean": 35.748913,
        "median": 29.0,
        "min": 0.0,
        "n_months_in_period": 120,
        "n_observed": 92,
        "p90": 82.23,
        "period_end": "2019-12",
        "period_id": "p2010_2019",
        "period_label": "2010-2019",
        "period_start": "2010-01",
        "series": "pctl_10y",
        "unavailable_reason": null
      },
      {
        "available": true,
        "channel": "pakistan_west",
        "coverage_fraction": 1.0,
        "max": 0.13243,
        "mean": 0.017356,
        "median": 0.01226,
        "min": 0.0,
        "n_months_in_period": 132,
        "n_observed": 132,
        "p90": 0.039256,
        "period_end": "1989-12",
        "period_id": "p1979_1989",
        "period_label": "1979-1989",
        "period_start": "1979-01",
        "series": "raw_share",
        "unavailable_reason": null
      },
      {
        "available": true,
        "channel": "pakistan_west",
        "coverage_fraction": 1.0,
        "max": 0.24532,
        "mean": 0.027042,
        "median": 0.016515,
        "min": 0.00128,
        "n_months_in_period": 120,
        "n_observed": 120,
        "p90": 0.0585,
        "period_end": "1999-12",
        "period_id": "p1990_1999",
        "period_label": "1990-1999",
        "period_start": "1990-01",
        "series": "raw_share",
        "unavailable_reason": null
      },
      {
        "available": true,
        "channel": "pakistan_west",
        "coverage_fraction": 1.0,
        "max": 0.25623,
        "mean": 0.047283,
        "median": 0.03834,
        "min": 0.0089,
        "n_months_in_period": 120,
        "n_observed": 120,
        "p90": 0.084784,
        "period_end": "2009-12",
        "period_id": "p2000_2009",
        "period_label": "2000-2009",
        "period_start": "2000-01",
        "series": "raw_share",
        "unavailable_reason": null
      },
      {
        "available": true,
        "channel": "pakistan_west",
        "coverage_fraction": 1.0,
        "max": 0.07918,
        "mean": 0.020918,
        "median": 0.01585,
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        "n_months_in_period": 120,
        "n_observed": 120,
        "p90": 0.041062,
        "period_end": "2019-12",
        "period_id": "p2010_2019",
        "period_label": "2010-2019",
        "period_start": "2010-01",
        "series": "raw_share",
        "unavailable_reason": null
      },
      {
        "available": true,
        "channel": "china_east",
        "coverage_fraction": 0.553,
        "max": 100.0,
        "mean": 58.412329,
        "median": 54.8,
        "min": 34.5,
        "n_months_in_period": 132,
        "n_observed": 73,
        "p90": 84.8,
        "period_end": "1989-12",
        "period_id": "p1979_1989",
        "period_label": "1979-1989",
        "period_start": "1979-01",
        "series": "pctl_10y",
        "unavailable_reason": null
      },
      {
        "available": true,
        "channel": "china_east",
        "coverage_fraction": 1.0,
        "max": 100.0,
        "mean": 56.6375,
        "median": 52.9,
        "min": 23.5,
        "n_months_in_period": 120,
        "n_observed": 120,
        "p90": 90.88,
        "period_end": "1999-12",
        "period_id": "p1990_1999",
        "period_label": "1990-1999",
        "period_start": "1990-01",
        "series": "pctl_10y",
        "unavailable_reason": null
      },
      {
        "available": true,
        "channel": "china_east",
        "coverage_fraction": 1.0,
        "max": 100.0,
        "mean": 63.335833,
        "median": 67.6,
        "min": 6.7,
        "n_months_in_period": 120,
        "n_observed": 120,
        "p90": 94.27,
        "period_end": "2009-12",
        "period_id": "p2000_2009",
        "period_label": "2000-2009",
        "period_start": "2000-01",
        "series": "pctl_10y",
        "unavailable_reason": null
      },
      {
        "available": true,
        "channel": "china_east",
        "coverage_fraction": 0.7667,
        "max": 100.0,
        "mean": 46.361957,
        "median": 44.5,
        "min": 0.0,
        "n_months_in_period": 120,
        "n_observed": 92,
        "p90": 85.45,
        "period_end": "2019-12",
        "period_id": "p2010_2019",
        "period_label": "2010-2019",
        "period_start": "2010-01",
        "series": "pctl_10y",
        "unavailable_reason": null
      },
      {
        "available": true,
        "channel": "china_east",
        "coverage_fraction": 1.0,
        "max": 0.14455,
        "mean": 0.006081,
        "median": 0.002765,
        "min": 0.0,
        "n_months_in_period": 132,
        "n_observed": 132,
        "p90": 0.014067,
        "period_end": "1989-12",
        "period_id": "p1979_1989",
        "period_label": "1979-1989",
        "period_start": "1979-01",
        "series": "raw_share",
        "unavailable_reason": null
      },
      {
        "available": true,
        "channel": "china_east",
        "coverage_fraction": 1.0,
        "max": 0.06835,
        "mean": 0.005054,
        "median": 0.002445,
        "min": 0.0,
        "n_months_in_period": 120,
        "n_observed": 120,
        "p90": 0.011239,
        "period_end": "1999-12",
        "period_id": "p1990_1999",
        "period_label": "1990-1999",
        "period_start": "1990-01",
        "series": "raw_share",
        "unavailable_reason": null
      },
      {
        "available": true,
        "channel": "china_east",
        "coverage_fraction": 1.0,
        "max": 0.08408,
        "mean": 0.011923,
        "median": 0.00684,
        "min": 0.00065,
        "n_months_in_period": 120,
        "n_observed": 120,
        "p90": 0.02836,
        "period_end": "2009-12",
        "period_id": "p2000_2009",
        "period_label": "2000-2009",
        "period_start": "2000-01",
        "series": "raw_share",
        "unavailable_reason": null
      },
      {
        "available": true,
        "channel": "china_east",
        "coverage_fraction": 1.0,
        "max": 0.05992,
        "mean": 0.008892,
        "median": 0.00627,
        "min": 0.00161,
        "n_months_in_period": 120,
        "n_observed": 120,
        "p90": 0.017717,
        "period_end": "2019-12",
        "period_id": "p2010_2019",
        "period_label": "2010-2019",
        "period_start": "2010-01",
        "series": "raw_share",
        "unavailable_reason": null
      }
    ]
  },
  "structural_breaks": {
    "declared": "For each channel and series, every candidate split point with at least min_segment_months on both sides is scored by the absolute Welch t statistic between the two segment means. The largest is reported as the single candidate break. This is a DESCRIPTIVE scan, not a change-point model with a stated generative assumption.",
    "language_rule": "A result is a CANDIDATE BREAK IN THE MEASURED SERIES. It is never described as a historical cause, a turning point, a regime change, or an explanation of any event. The series measures press attention, so a break is a break in attention and nothing more.",
    "null_behaviour": {
      "description": "The series values are shuffled without replacement and the same maximum statistic recomputed, which destroys any time ordering while preserving the value distribution. The reported p_value is the fraction of permutations whose maximum statistic met or exceeded the observed one.",
      "deterministic": true,
      "method": "permutation",
      "n_permutations": 2000,
      "seed": 20260809
    },
    "rows": [
      {
        "algorithm": "single_best_split_by_welch_t_on_mean",
        "channel": "pakistan_west",
        "distinct_candidates_across_settings": [
          "1980-01",
          "1984-01"
        ],
        "interpretation": "Candidate break in the measured attention series, not a historical cause, turning point or explanation of any event.",
        "n_observed": 492,
        "primary": {
          "available": true,
          "candidate_break_month": "1984-01",
          "min_segment_months": 24,
          "n_permutations": 2000,
          "p_value": 0.0005,
          "statistic": 9.3948,
          "unavailable_reason": null
        },
        "sensitivity_sweep": [
          {
            "available": true,
            "candidate_break_month": "1980-01",
            "min_segment_months": 12,
            "n_permutations": 2000,
            "p_value": 0.0005,
            "statistic": 10.0779,
            "unavailable_reason": null
          },
          {
            "available": true,
            "candidate_break_month": "1984-01",
            "min_segment_months": 24,
            "n_permutations": 2000,
            "p_value": 0.0005,
            "statistic": 9.3948,
            "unavailable_reason": null
          },
          {
            "available": true,
            "candidate_break_month": "1984-01",
            "min_segment_months": 36,
            "n_permutations": 2000,
            "p_value": 0.0005,
            "statistic": 9.3948,
            "unavailable_reason": null
          },
          {
            "available": true,
            "candidate_break_month": "1984-01",
            "min_segment_months": 48,
            "n_permutations": 2000,
            "p_value": 0.0005,
            "statistic": 9.3948,
            "unavailable_reason": null
          }
        ],
        "series": "raw_share",
        "stable_across_all_settings": false
      },
      {
        "algorithm": "single_best_split_by_welch_t_on_mean",
        "channel": "china_east",
        "distinct_candidates_across_settings": [
          "1998-04"
        ],
        "interpretation": "Candidate break in the measured attention series, not a historical cause, turning point or explanation of any event.",
        "n_observed": 492,
        "primary": {
          "available": true,
          "candidate_break_month": "1998-04",
          "min_segment_months": 24,
          "n_permutations": 2000,
          "p_value": 0.01249,
          "statistic": 5.2643,
          "unavailable_reason": null
        },
        "sensitivity_sweep": [
          {
            "available": true,
            "candidate_break_month": "1998-04",
            "min_segment_months": 12,
            "n_permutations": 2000,
            "p_value": 0.04548,
            "statistic": 5.2643,
            "unavailable_reason": null
          },
          {
            "available": true,
            "candidate_break_month": "1998-04",
            "min_segment_months": 24,
            "n_permutations": 2000,
            "p_value": 0.01249,
            "statistic": 5.2643,
            "unavailable_reason": null
          },
          {
            "available": true,
            "candidate_break_month": "1998-04",
            "min_segment_months": 36,
            "n_permutations": 2000,
            "p_value": 0.007,
            "statistic": 5.2643,
            "unavailable_reason": null
          },
          {
            "available": true,
            "candidate_break_month": "1998-04",
            "min_segment_months": 48,
            "n_permutations": 2000,
            "p_value": 0.0025,
            "statistic": 5.2643,
            "unavailable_reason": null
          }
        ],
        "series": "raw_share",
        "stable_across_all_settings": true
      }
    ]
  }
}