{
 "_meta": {
  "what": "Score-level sensitivity to the independently audited splice ratios. The primary series is frozen and unchanged. This alternative rescales only mechanically identified NGrams-bridge rows for Pakistan, China and Gulf; US Trade and Shipping have no additional independent overlap and are therefore left at production values.",
  "status": "sensitivity analysis, not a replacement series",
  "independent_denominator": "Last pre-bridge DOC-API store, git commit 091c25e, paired with retained NGrams day caches",
  "known_limitations": "Only 18 independent days are available for the three re-estimated channels; daily observations may be serially dependent. US Trade and Shipping remain untested beyond n=1.",
  "affected_start": "2026-07-01",
  "affected_end": "2026-08-06",
  "n_adjusted_store_days": 37,
  "generated": "2026-08-07",
  "license": "CC BY 4.0",
  "citation": "Krishna, Ishan (2026). India Geopolitical Risk Monitor. https://igrm.in/",
  "codebook": "https://igrm.in/codebook.html",
  "source": "https://igrm.in/data/splice_sensitivity.json"
 },
 "calibration_audit": {
  "pakistan_west": {
   "production_ratio": 1.9547,
   "production_n": 5,
   "independent_ratio": 2.4634,
   "independent_n": 18,
   "additional_independent_days": 13,
   "relative_change_pct": 26.0,
   "independent_log_sd": 0.3296
  },
  "china_east": {
   "production_ratio": 3.3612,
   "production_n": 5,
   "independent_ratio": 2.6998,
   "independent_n": 18,
   "additional_independent_days": 13,
   "relative_change_pct": -19.7,
   "independent_log_sd": 0.3954
  },
  "gulf_energy": {
   "production_ratio": 1.791,
   "production_n": 5,
   "independent_ratio": 1.8098,
   "independent_n": 18,
   "additional_independent_days": 13,
   "relative_change_pct": 1.0,
   "independent_log_sd": 0.0976
  },
  "us_trade": {
   "production_ratio": 2.5616,
   "production_n": 1,
   "independent_ratio": 2.5616,
   "independent_n": 1,
   "additional_independent_days": 0,
   "relative_change_pct": null,
   "independent_log_sd": 0.0
  },
  "shipping": {
   "production_ratio": 2.9747,
   "production_n": 1,
   "independent_ratio": 2.9747,
   "independent_n": 1,
   "additional_independent_days": 0,
   "relative_change_pct": null,
   "independent_log_sd": 0.0
  }
 },
 "dates": [
  "2026-07-01",
  "2026-07-02",
  "2026-07-03",
  "2026-07-04",
  "2026-07-05",
  "2026-07-06",
  "2026-07-07",
  "2026-07-08",
  "2026-07-09",
  "2026-07-10",
  "2026-07-11",
  "2026-07-12",
  "2026-07-13",
  "2026-07-14",
  "2026-07-15",
  "2026-07-16",
  "2026-07-17",
  "2026-07-18",
  "2026-07-19",
  "2026-07-20",
  "2026-07-21",
  "2026-07-22",
  "2026-07-23",
  "2026-07-24",
  "2026-07-25",
  "2026-07-26",
  "2026-07-27",
  "2026-07-28",
  "2026-07-29",
  "2026-07-30",
  "2026-07-31",
  "2026-08-01",
  "2026-08-02",
  "2026-08-03",
  "2026-08-04",
  "2026-08-05",
  "2026-08-06"
 ],
 "daily": {
  "primary": {
   "pakistan_west": [
    90.5,
    80.8,
    83.9,
    74.8,
    39.0,
    78.8,
    55.3,
    82.3,
    65.5,
    83.3,
    82.7,
    48.9,
    63.8,
    52.9,
    60.0,
    62.6,
    66.1,
    66.2,
    42.5,
    50.5,
    87.5,
    17.5,
    89.3,
    82.7,
    81.3,
    93.3,
    70.7,
    87.9,
    79.8,
    81.5,
    85.8,
    75.5,
    91.2,
    74.3,
    91.4,
    90.2,
    65.1
   ],
   "china_east": [
    68.9,
    6.0,
    21.3,
    68.4,
    36.7,
    16.3,
    15.1,
    26.6,
    64.4,
    82.0,
    61.6,
    78.8,
    14.9,
    18.8,
    30.2,
    9.4,
    23.0,
    35.2,
    6.0,
    40.1,
    1.7,
    84.9,
    12.1,
    10.8,
    22.4,
    30.4,
    30.3,
    61.0,
    7.6,
    71.9,
    38.7,
    36.7,
    77.4,
    33.5,
    74.3,
    4.5,
    5.3
   ],
   "gulf_energy": [
    81.6,
    81.1,
    80.2,
    80.8,
    82.5,
    80.2,
    82.6,
    91.9,
    88.2,
    81.5,
    81.6,
    87.5,
    88.2,
    89.8,
    84.2,
    84.3,
    81.6,
    85.3,
    87.2,
    86.5,
    81.5,
    84.0,
    82.6,
    79.8,
    78.7,
    82.2,
    78.5,
    78.1,
    80.8,
    79.9,
    77.8,
    76.6,
    80.4,
    80.4,
    78.8,
    78.5,
    77.7
   ],
   "composite": [
    66.2,
    51.6,
    54.0,
    60.0,
    52.7,
    50.5,
    55.3,
    65.2,
    71.3,
    78.2,
    72.8,
    65.3,
    57.3,
    56.9,
    67.6,
    56.3,
    54.7,
    62.4,
    46.8,
    60.6,
    63.1,
    66.0,
    63.5,
    72.2,
    68.1,
    65.7,
    60.9,
    71.0,
    67.2,
    70.0,
    64.2,
    59.3,
    72.9,
    59.3,
    75.1,
    58.4,
    48.9
   ]
  },
  "independent_ratio_sensitivity": {
   "pakistan_west": [
    87.4,
    74.2,
    79.0,
    66.3,
    28.1,
    70.7,
    45.0,
    77.0,
    56.9,
    78.7,
    77.8,
    39.0,
    54.7,
    42.2,
    50.6,
    53.7,
    58.5,
    58.6,
    32.3,
    40.5,
    84.0,
    11.6,
    86.5,
    77.7,
    75.7,
    91.6,
    62.6,
    85.3,
    74.1,
    76.6,
    80.9,
    67.0,
    88.9,
    66.1,
    88.9,
    87.0,
    57.1
   ],
   "china_east": [
    81.5,
    13.5,
    35.9,
    80.6,
    54.7,
    30.7,
    29.3,
    42.5,
    78.7,
    89.9,
    75.2,
    86.5,
    28.9,
    31.8,
    47.0,
    20.1,
    39.3,
    51.8,
    12.3,
    58.8,
    3.8,
    91.3,
    24.8,
    22.3,
    36.9,
    47.1,
    46.8,
    73.9,
    16.1,
    83.2,
    56.1,
    54.0,
    86.0,
    50.9,
    84.9,
    8.4,
    10.4
   ],
   "gulf_energy": [
    81.6,
    81.1,
    80.1,
    80.8,
    82.5,
    80.2,
    82.6,
    91.9,
    88.1,
    81.5,
    81.6,
    87.5,
    88.2,
    89.6,
    83.7,
    84.2,
    81.6,
    85.1,
    87.2,
    86.5,
    81.3,
    83.9,
    82.3,
    79.8,
    78.7,
    82.0,
    78.5,
    78.1,
    80.6,
    79.9,
    77.8,
    76.6,
    80.4,
    80.4,
    78.8,
    78.4,
    77.7
   ],
   "composite": [
    68.1,
    51.8,
    55.9,
    60.7,
    54.1,
    51.8,
    56.1,
    67.3,
    72.4,
    78.9,
    74.5,
    64.9,
    58.2,
    57.3,
    69.0,
    56.7,
    56.4,
    64.1,
    46.1,
    62.4,
    62.7,
    66.1,
    65.4,
    73.5,
    69.8,
    68.7,
    62.6,
    73.1,
    67.7,
    71.2,
    66.7,
    61.1,
    74.2,
    61.2,
    76.7,
    58.5,
    48.3
   ]
  },
  "delta": {
   "pakistan_west": [
    -3.1,
    -6.6,
    -4.9,
    -8.4,
    -10.9,
    -8.1,
    -10.2,
    -5.3,
    -8.6,
    -4.6,
    -4.9,
    -10.0,
    -9.1,
    -10.7,
    -9.4,
    -8.8,
    -7.6,
    -7.6,
    -10.2,
    -10.0,
    -3.5,
    -5.9,
    -2.8,
    -5.0,
    -5.6,
    -1.7,
    -8.1,
    -2.7,
    -5.8,
    -4.9,
    -4.9,
    -8.4,
    -2.2,
    -8.3,
    -2.5,
    -3.2,
    -8.0
   ],
   "china_east": [
    12.6,
    7.4,
    14.6,
    12.2,
    18.0,
    14.4,
    14.2,
    15.8,
    14.3,
    7.9,
    13.6,
    7.7,
    14.0,
    13.0,
    16.8,
    10.7,
    16.3,
    16.5,
    6.3,
    18.7,
    2.1,
    6.5,
    12.8,
    11.5,
    14.4,
    16.7,
    16.5,
    12.9,
    8.6,
    11.2,
    17.4,
    17.3,
    8.6,
    17.4,
    10.5,
    3.9,
    5.0
   ],
   "gulf_energy": [
    0.0,
    0.0,
    -0.1,
    0.0,
    0.0,
    0.0,
    0.0,
    0.0,
    -0.1,
    0.0,
    0.0,
    0.0,
    0.0,
    -0.1,
    -0.4,
    -0.1,
    0.0,
    -0.1,
    0.0,
    0.0,
    -0.1,
    -0.1,
    -0.3,
    0.0,
    0.0,
    -0.1,
    0.0,
    0.0,
    -0.1,
    0.0,
    0.0,
    0.0,
    0.0,
    0.0,
    0.0,
    -0.1,
    0.0
   ],
   "composite": [
    1.9,
    0.2,
    1.9,
    0.8,
    1.4,
    1.3,
    0.8,
    2.1,
    1.1,
    0.6,
    1.7,
    -0.4,
    1.0,
    0.4,
    1.4,
    0.3,
    1.7,
    1.8,
    -0.8,
    1.7,
    -0.3,
    0.1,
    1.9,
    1.3,
    1.8,
    3.0,
    1.7,
    2.0,
    0.5,
    1.3,
    2.5,
    1.8,
    1.3,
    1.8,
    1.6,
    0.1,
    -0.6
   ]
  }
 },
 "trailing_7_day": {
  "primary": {
   "pakistan_west": [
    75.9,
    80.0,
    82.7,
    80.0,
    79.2,
    81.4,
    80.0,
    74.8,
    71.0,
    70.7,
    73.5,
    74.6,
    71.0,
    70.7,
    66.8,
    66.1,
    60.7,
    56.3,
    55.8,
    53.2,
    65.1,
    60.4,
    70.4,
    76.1,
    79.2,
    87.5,
    88.2,
    88.3,
    89.6,
    88.5,
    89.0,
    88.2,
    86.5,
    86.8,
    88.0,
    89.9,
    88.9
   ],
   "china_east": [
    88.3,
    86.9,
    80.8,
    75.6,
    58.3,
    36.6,
    20.3,
    11.8,
    23.2,
    41.5,
    39.0,
    48.6,
    48.5,
    49.2,
    49.9,
    39.2,
    21.3,
    16.3,
    4.2,
    6.8,
    3.2,
    14.8,
    15.2,
    12.5,
    11.0,
    15.6,
    13.2,
    29.0,
    8.3,
    19.4,
    25.4,
    29.3,
    42.0,
    43.2,
    47.2,
    46.2,
    29.9
   ],
   "gulf_energy": [
    82.1,
    81.7,
    81.5,
    81.3,
    81.1,
    80.6,
    80.8,
    81.5,
    82.4,
    83.0,
    83.5,
    84.5,
    86.5,
    87.2,
    86.2,
    84.9,
    85.5,
    86.3,
    86.3,
    85.5,
    83.7,
    83.8,
    83.2,
    83.0,
    81.7,
    80.7,
    79.3,
    78.9,
    78.6,
    78.5,
    78.0,
    77.9,
    77.7,
    78.0,
    78.3,
    78.0,
    77.3
   ],
   "composite": [
    71.9,
    71.9,
    70.6,
    67.4,
    62.5,
    57.6,
    55.3,
    55.3,
    58.2,
    63.1,
    64.7,
    66.8,
    67.5,
    67.9,
    67.3,
    64.5,
    59.0,
    56.8,
    54.0,
    54.0,
    56.3,
    57.3,
    60.0,
    64.1,
    64.5,
    66.9,
    66.3,
    69.2,
    66.0,
    67.5,
    65.7,
    64.8,
    66.7,
    66.8,
    67.6,
    66.2,
    61.5
   ]
  },
  "independent_ratio_sensitivity": {
   "pakistan_west": [
    72.1,
    75.8,
    79.2,
    71.8,
    70.7,
    74.4,
    69.6,
    64.1,
    61.3,
    60.8,
    63.0,
    63.9,
    61.5,
    61.0,
    56.3,
    56.1,
    51.1,
    45.2,
    44.6,
    42.4,
    53.7,
    50.3,
    60.8,
    65.9,
    68.2,
    81.3,
    82.7,
    82.8,
    85.8,
    83.5,
    84.1,
    83.1,
    80.3,
    80.4,
    82.5,
    86.2,
    84.4
   ],
   "china_east": [
    89.3,
    88.9,
    85.2,
    83.2,
    67.7,
    55.4,
    45.6,
    34.2,
    48.9,
    63.1,
    61.7,
    68.6,
    68.3,
    68.6,
    69.4,
    61.7,
    46.8,
    41.1,
    17.7,
    23.2,
    16.5,
    38.2,
    39.0,
    36.1,
    32.7,
    39.7,
    37.3,
    52.8,
    27.5,
    45.1,
    49.7,
    52.8,
    63.8,
    64.4,
    67.2,
    66.5,
    53.4
   ],
   "gulf_energy": [
    82.1,
    81.7,
    81.5,
    81.3,
    81.1,
    80.6,
    80.7,
    81.5,
    82.4,
    83.0,
    83.5,
    84.4,
    86.1,
    87.2,
    85.8,
    84.8,
    85.1,
    86.2,
    86.3,
    85.4,
    83.4,
    83.4,
    83.1,
    83.0,
    81.7,
    80.6,
    79.2,
    78.9,
    78.6,
    78.3,
    78.0,
    77.9,
    77.7,
    78.0,
    78.2,
    77.9,
    77.3
   ],
   "composite": [
    71.4,
    71.4,
    70.8,
    67.3,
    62.7,
    59.9,
    58.2,
    57.7,
    61.4,
    65.4,
    67.1,
    68.7,
    69.5,
    69.9,
    69.1,
    67.0,
    62.1,
    59.5,
    54.5,
    55.1,
    56.6,
    59.8,
    62.8,
    66.7,
    66.6,
    70.5,
    70.0,
    72.8,
    69.0,
    71.6,
    69.5,
    68.5,
    69.9,
    69.7,
    70.5,
    69.5,
    65.3
   ]
  },
  "delta": {
   "pakistan_west": [
    -3.8,
    -4.2,
    -3.5,
    -8.2,
    -8.5,
    -7.0,
    -10.4,
    -10.7,
    -9.7,
    -9.9,
    -10.6,
    -10.7,
    -9.4,
    -9.7,
    -10.4,
    -10.0,
    -9.6,
    -11.1,
    -11.1,
    -10.8,
    -11.4,
    -10.1,
    -9.6,
    -10.1,
    -11.0,
    -6.2,
    -5.5,
    -5.5,
    -3.8,
    -4.9,
    -4.9,
    -5.1,
    -6.2,
    -6.3,
    -5.5,
    -3.7,
    -4.5
   ],
   "china_east": [
    1.0,
    2.0,
    4.4,
    7.6,
    9.4,
    18.7,
    25.4,
    22.4,
    25.6,
    21.5,
    22.7,
    20.0,
    19.9,
    19.4,
    19.6,
    22.5,
    25.5,
    24.8,
    13.5,
    16.5,
    13.2,
    23.4,
    23.8,
    23.5,
    21.7,
    24.1,
    24.1,
    23.8,
    19.2,
    25.6,
    24.4,
    23.5,
    21.8,
    21.1,
    20.0,
    20.3,
    23.5
   ],
   "gulf_energy": [
    0.0,
    0.0,
    0.0,
    0.0,
    0.0,
    0.0,
    -0.1,
    0.0,
    0.0,
    0.0,
    0.0,
    -0.1,
    -0.4,
    0.0,
    -0.4,
    -0.1,
    -0.4,
    -0.1,
    0.0,
    -0.1,
    -0.3,
    -0.4,
    -0.1,
    0.0,
    0.0,
    -0.1,
    -0.1,
    0.0,
    0.0,
    -0.1,
    0.0,
    0.0,
    0.0,
    0.0,
    -0.1,
    -0.1,
    0.0
   ],
   "composite": [
    -0.6,
    -0.5,
    0.2,
    -0.1,
    0.2,
    2.3,
    3.0,
    2.3,
    3.2,
    2.3,
    2.4,
    1.8,
    2.0,
    1.9,
    1.7,
    2.5,
    3.1,
    2.7,
    0.5,
    1.1,
    0.3,
    2.6,
    2.8,
    2.7,
    2.1,
    3.5,
    3.7,
    3.7,
    3.1,
    4.1,
    3.9,
    3.7,
    3.1,
    3.0,
    2.9,
    3.3,
    3.8
   ]
  }
 },
 "summary": {
  "daily": {
   "pakistan_west": {
    "median_absolute_shift": 6.59,
    "maximum_absolute_shift": 10.94,
    "latest_shift": -7.99
   },
   "china_east": {
    "median_absolute_shift": 13.04,
    "maximum_absolute_shift": 18.65,
    "latest_shift": 5.05
   },
   "gulf_energy": {
    "median_absolute_shift": 0.0,
    "maximum_absolute_shift": 0.42,
    "latest_shift": 0.0
   },
   "composite": {
    "median_absolute_shift": 1.29,
    "maximum_absolute_shift": 2.97,
    "latest_shift": -0.59
   }
  },
  "trailing_7_day": {
   "pakistan_west": {
    "median_absolute_shift": 9.44,
    "maximum_absolute_shift": 11.41,
    "latest_shift": -4.51
   },
   "china_east": {
    "median_absolute_shift": 21.69,
    "maximum_absolute_shift": 25.63,
    "latest_shift": 23.52
   },
   "gulf_energy": {
    "median_absolute_shift": 0.0,
    "maximum_absolute_shift": 0.42,
    "latest_shift": 0.0
   },
   "composite": {
    "median_absolute_shift": 2.56,
    "maximum_absolute_shift": 4.11,
    "latest_shift": 3.8
   }
  }
 }
}