India Geopolitical Risk Monitor

A permanent record of where independent instruments disagree. These are inspection targets, not a leaderboard.

Append-only · first frozen 7 August 2026

Disagreement is a result

IGRM measures the share of monitored coverage devoted to five India-relevant fault lines. Its comparators measure other things: AI-GPR scores risk intensity in a different newspaper corpus; IMF PortWatch counts ships. When their ranks separate sharply, this page preserves the date, the two readings and a route back to the evidence. It does not decide which instrument is right.

Largest frozen gap98.4percentile points, Bab el-Mandeb
Registered AI-GPR result0.256Spearman rho, monthly changes
Permanent rows7all with receipts and claim limits

Reading rule

A rank gap says where to inspect. It does not identify a cause, establish predictive power, or show that the higher-ranked instrument is more accurate.

Current register

PublishedPeriodComparisonIGRM rankOther rank|gap|DirectionReceipt
2026-08-07week of 2026-07-27Bab el-Mandeb salience vs PortWatch transits99.71.398.4IGRM higherinspect
2026-08-07week of 2026-07-27Hormuz salience vs PortWatch transits95.40.495.0IGRM higherW32 note
2026-08-072020-02IGRM composite vs AI-GPR India_all2.879.676.9AI-GPR higherinspect
2026-08-072019-06IGRM composite vs AI-GPR India_all87.015.771.3IGRM higherinspect
2026-08-072019-02IGRM composite vs AI-GPR India_all23.194.471.3AI-GPR higherinspect
2026-08-072021-05IGRM composite vs AI-GPR India_all7.474.166.7AI-GPR higherinspect
2026-08-072023-01IGRM composite vs AI-GPR India_all86.120.465.7IGRM higherinspect

AI-GPR ranks use the 108 eligible months in the frozen 2017-07 to 2026-07 benchmark. PortWatch rows rank each series within its own complete 2019-present weekly history. Samples are not pooled across register families.

Receipts and reuse

The machine-readable register is divergence_register.json. The AI-GPR rows come from the verbatim registered output; its protocol, frozen script and interpretation are public. Only ranks and aggregates are republished from AI-GPR, never its raw values.

Append-only policy

Rows are never silently deleted. If a source revises, the original row stays and a dated correction is attached. New rows need a named comparator, a frozen sample, a rank rule, a period and a receipt. This keeps the register useful even when a comparison is awkward for IGRM.