India Geopolitical Risk Monitor

One number for how loudly the world's press is talking about India's geopolitics. Updated every morning. Every number backed by the articles behind it.

IGRM measures press salience: the share of global news coverage matching five registered channels of India-relevant geopolitics — the Pakistan border, the China border, Gulf & energy security, US & trade policy, and shipping chokepoints — each ranked against its own trailing two years. It is not a measure of risk, it makes no forecasts, and it is not investment advice. What it offers instead is discipline: every construction choice registered before use, every claim checkable, every miss recorded in public.

Read it in ninety seconds

  1. The headline number is the composite: the mean of five channel scores, each a 0–100 percentile of today's coverage share against that channel's own last two years. 70 means louder than 70% of days in that window. That's all it means.
  2. The five channels decompose it. A quiet composite can hide one loud channel; the channel rows and their sparklines show which one.
  3. The receipts are the evidence: for each channel, the exact registered query and the matched articles — most of them drawn from the very sample the day's score was computed over, tier-sorted by source credibility.
  4. The validation record is how you know it measures anything: detection of a pre-registered episode list the query terms never name, placebo channels that must stay quiet, robustness under alternative dictionaries, and the sampling bands on recent scores.

Choose your door

Policy practitioner

Today's picture and what moved: the front page, then receipts for the loud channel, then the maps.

Researcher

Constructions and reuse: methodology, codebook with a five-line quick-start, and the frozen API contract. Data CC BY 4.0.

Journalist

The weekly notes say what moved and why in ~250 words; analysis holds the longer studies. Quote with attribution.

Why this is an instrument, not a dashboard

What this cannot tell you

Whether markets will move, whether a crisis will escalate, or what a government intends. Salience is attention, and attention is not risk: the attention-pricing gap study documents exactly where press attention and market pricing diverge, as a finding, not a signal.