IGRM

India Geopolitical Risk Monitor

Daily press-salience of geopolitical risk for India, decomposed by channel. Not a measure of risk itself, and not investment advice. Final numbers by 6:00 AM IST; provisional nowcast every two hours.

Composite · 2026-08-04

75.1

▲ +15.8 vs yesterday

History

The shaded band on recent days is the 95% sampling interval of the composite: those scores are estimated from a ~30,000-article daily sample, and the band is what the sample cannot pin down. Earlier days were computed over the full monitored corpus and carry no band. Method in the codebook.

This week's note

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Episode archive

Days where a channel's coverage volume exceeded its 90-day mean by two standard deviations, clustered into episodes. Click through for that episode's market context.

StartEndChannelPeakDays
No episodes yet.

Event study

Mean cumulative India-specific relative return after episode starts, bootstrapped 95% CIs, windows in trading days. Association, not causation.

ChannelOutcome+1d+5d+20dn
Not computed yet.