Evidence

Prediction archive

Professional research institutions almost never score their own forecasts in public. This page exists so that this one cannot avoid it: every dated, falsifiable expectation we publish is registered here before its outcome is known and graded here when its horizon arrives. Right or wrong, with why.

Data day
See latest published payload
Freshness
Source-by-source status

The rules

A prediction enters this archive only through a dated commit made before the outcome is knowable. At its horizon it receives exactly one grade: correct, wrong, or unresolvable, each with a one-paragraph account and links to the evidence. Entries are never edited afterward; corrections of the grading itself would go through the corrections ledger. The index itself predicts nothing (methodology §1); predictions here come from the written analyses, and their scoring measures the author's judgment, not the instrument.

The archive

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