Two channels publish; two refused. The registered rule: a channel's historical proxy publishes only if its raw-share co-movement with the live instrument over their 36 shared months reaches r ≥ 0.4. The border channels passed decisively — pakistan_west r = 0.893, china_east r = 0.848, two entirely different constructions hearing the same waves. us_trade (r = 0.216) and gulf_energy (r = 0.153) publish no historical series: event coding and policy salience diverge exactly as the registration flagged before any number existed, and that refusal is the finding, not a footnote. Shipping never ran — chokepoint salience has no actor coding.
Trailing-10-year percentile of each channel's monthly event-mention share. The dashed vertical line is the GDELT 1.0 → 2.0 generation seam (2015-02); each segment is normalized against its own history and the raw shares are published in the payload so the seam is inspectable.
Registered ex-ante with a top-decile rule: each anchor's month must rank in its channel's top 10% of the trailing decade, or the miss publishes with the series. Six of nine hit — and each miss is informative: Blue Star (52.3) is the registered construct-edge outcome (the bilateral filter does not hear domestic events — which is evidence it is truly bilateral); 26/11 (89.1) falls 0.9 points short because non-state perpetrators thin state-actor coding; Sumdorong Chu (54.8) sits in the thin wire coverage of 1986.
| Anchor | Month | Channel | Percentile (trailing 10y) | Top decile |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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